"Can an Attack Deny Iran the Bomb?"
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
May 11, 2010
Author: Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: International Security; Managing the Atom; Science, Technology, and Public Policy
"As the international pressure on Iran intensifies, the option of bombing Iran's nuclear facilities remains on the table. It is widely believed that a limited strike targeting key nodes in the nuclear complex can delay Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons by several years. However, a fresh look at the historical record suggests that an attack can intensify the Iranian nuclear challenge and push Iran across the nuclear weapons threshold sooner rather than later.
Advocates of a military strike believe that the Israeli destruction of the Osiraq reactor complex in June 1981 delayed Iraq's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. This belief rests on two assumptions: that Iraq was pursuing a weapons option in a determined manner before the attack and that the destroyed reactor was intended to serve as a key component of these efforts. Both assumptions are false.
In the mid-1970s Iraq began to develop a nuclear weapons option as part of a wider expansion of their nuclear power program. Iraqi sources demonstrate that there was no dedicated organization, staff or funding for the purposes of acquiring nuclear weapons prior to June 1981. In other words, Iraq had not begun to act on Saddam's nuclear weapons ambition in a serious or determined manner.
The Israeli attack triggered Iraq's determined pursuit of nuclear weapons. In September 1981, three months after the strike, Iraq established a well-funded clandestine nuclear weapons program. This had a separate organization, staff, ample funding and a clear mandate from Saddam Hussein. As the nuclear weapons program went underground the international community lost sight of these activities and had no influence on the Iraqi nuclear calculus...."
Continue reading: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/malfrid-brauthegghammer/can-an-attack-deny-iran-t_b_572162.html
For more information about this publication please contact the Belfer Center Communications Office at 617-495-9858.
Full text of this publication is available at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/malfrid-brauthegghammer/can-an-attack-deny-iran-t_
b_572162.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/malfrid-brauthegghammer/can-an-attack-deny-iran-t_
b_572162.html
For Academic Citation:
Braut-Hegghammer, Malfrid. "Can an Attack Deny Iran the Bomb?." The Huffington Post, May 11, 2010.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
"Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace"
By Matthew Fuhrmann and Sarah Kreps
By Matthew Fuhrmann and Sarah Kreps
"Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities"
By Whitney Raas and Austin Long
By Whitney Raas and Austin Long
"Obama and Iran: Dialogue or Sanctions?"
By Kayhan Barzegar
By Kayhan Barzegar
"Nuclear Power Without Nuclear Proliferation?"
By Steven E. Miller and Scott Sagan
By Steven E. Miller and Scott Sagan
"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"
By Caitlin Talmadge
By Caitlin Talmadge
Belfer Center Quick Links
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
The Spring 2010 issue of the quarterly journalInternational Security is now available. It features articles by Monica Toft, Bradley Thayer and Valerie Hudson, and more.
EMAIL UPDATES
EVENTS CALENDAR
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20123/can_an_attack_deny_iran_the_bomb.html
padding-top: 0px;">
We host a busy schedule of events throughout the fall, winter and spring. Past guests include: UN Secretary-GeneralBan Ki-moon, former Vice President Al Gore, and former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev.
padding-top: 0px;">
We host a busy schedule of events throughout the fall, winter and spring. Past guests include: UN Secretary-GeneralBan Ki-moon, former Vice President Al Gore, and former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev.
Browse by: Topics | Regions | Experts | Programs/Projects | Publications | For the Media | Fellowships | About the Belfer Center
© Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Kennedy School of Government | Harvard University
79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel. 617-495-1400
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿